The Business Case chapters present an assessment of evidence to support the ORiW feasibility study. They are structured around the HM Treasury Five Case Model and apply Green Book principles proportionately. Because the programme is at feasibility stage, ahead of a Strategic Outline Case, they follow the guidance in a way which is proportionate to the current stage of project development.
Purpose of the Business Case chapters: The chapters assess whether there is a credible case for intervention beyond currently committed investment, identify a feasible shortlist of options and recommend a most preferred option for further investigation. They are intended to inform future decision-making, stakeholder engagement and consultation; and do not provide a final design or implementation plan.
Use of evidence and proportionality: The chapters make best use of the evidence available up to September 2026, and the level of analysis is proportionate to the stage of assessment. At this stage, the purpose is to compare strategic approaches and identify the best-performing options in terms of value for money, resilience and deliverability, rather than to define a final engineering solution. The analysis relies in part on data and modelling provided by third parties. Where primary evidence was not available, the analysis draws on published studies, value transfer, expert judgement and stated assumptions, which are set out in the relevant chapters and appendices. Costs, designs, delivery models, environmental assessments and programme assumptions will continue to evolve as further evidence becomes available.
What has been developed, and what has not: The chapters identify a most preferred way forward to achieve ORiW based on available evidence. This is not a final investment decision, planning application, funding commitment or approval to proceed. Further design, assessment, stakeholder engagement, consultation, customer research, regulatory approvals and business case stages would be needed to inform any final decision. Publication is intended to support transparency and informed discussion.
Stakeholder positions: The chapters contain inputs from a stakeholders represented on the ORiW Steering Group, but they do not represent the position of any stakeholder.
Cost estimates: Costs are feasibility-level estimates to AACE class 4 accuracy; which typically have an uncertainty range of -30% to +50% and include allowances for risk and optimism bias. They are not budgets, tender prices or outturn costs. They should not be used for project budgets.
Understanding the benefits presented: A significant majority of the benefits assessed in the Economic Case are environmental and social rather than direct financial returns. They reflect estimates of the value society places on environmental quality, recreation, wellbeing, amenity and the protection of nationally important natural assets. They are not revenues generated by the programme.
How to interpret the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR): A BCR compares estimated monetised benefits with estimated costs. A value above 1.0 shows that estimated benefits exceed estimated costs under the assumptions used. Consistent with HM Treasury Green Book guidance, value for money also takes account of non-monetised impacts, distributional effects, risk, resilience deliverability and alignment with objectives.
Valuation uncertainty: Amenity and environmental values are transferred from studies of other locations. They are indicative at this stage.
Programme timing: Dates used in the appraisal give a consistent basis for comparing options and should not be read as committed delivery dates. Actual timescales will depend on approvals, consents, funding, procurement, land access, design development and other programme dependencies.
Environmental modelling: The modelling gives evidence-based indications of how different scenarios may affect lake condition and water quality. It supports option comparison for this stage, but it is not a precise forecast of future environmental outcomes.
Caveats, assumptions recommendations for further work: The chapters contain caveats, assumptions and recommendations for further work to be addressed as the project progresses.
Redactions: Some commercially sensitive information has been removed before publication.